New Year’s message from chairman Frans Evers by Frans Evers
May I start by wishing all members of the network, their families, and other readers of this message all the best for 2025 and the years to come? Let us hope that the commitment and qualities of our members will make our society more listening and creative. Negotiation and mediation skills are in greater demand than ever.
I am writing this on the day that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is announced. Joy and doubts everywhere. Messages about difficult formal ratifications fly through the airwaves. For the experienced negotiator this is not so surprising, after all, joy about the silence of the guns and rockets in a ceasefire is always accompanied by fear about the way in which parties use that ceasefire. It is not without reason that the President of Ukraine is already asking for security guarantees from Europe and the US at this stage as part of a possible ceasefire. After all, parties often use them for regrouping and rearming their armies. I did not hear or read anything about US guarantees for the Palestinians and Israel. What is clear is the attitude of Hamas, which is common in the Middle East: they declare that Israel has lost with this agreement. Young men celebrate the victory on the streets!
In my training sessions and other contributions in Israel, Jordan and especially in Turkey, I heard again and again: if you are prepared to sit down at the table for negotiations on ending hostilities, this shows that you think you are losing. That is why it is also important to only formally agree as the last party. And although this was all years ago, you can still see that. The new president of the US also applies this approach, Machiavelli already wrote: the prince cannot lose. Trump is known for having to avoid a loss at all costs under all circumstances. If that does happen, the other party has cheated. The zero-sum approach is everywhere: there is no such thing as both parties being better off. Commentators are falling over themselves to explain why an agreement was suddenly reached a few days before Trump took office. Is that because of Trump or because of Biden? Now, either-or thinking is rarely sensible anyway, but here almost the same thing is at play as with the hostage-taking at the American embassy in Iran at the time. At that time, the hostages were released on the first day of Reagan’s presidency. The substantive long and tough negotiations under Carter were followed by uncertainty about the BATNA of the parties under an unpredictable new president. But of course, there is also the desire to grant a new president something and thus improve the starting position for building new relations. Perhaps a change of president will play a dominant role after all. Qatar deserves praise, not only because they proved to be successful mediators with Blinken’s support, but also because their Al Jazira TV and radio stations continued to broadcast the events. Don’t forget that a few years ago other Arab states boycotted Qatar because they did not want to close that station. Whatever happens next: deep wounds have been inflicted, the many dead and wounded will not be forgotten, compassion on both sides is necessary. But it seems that the scenario of Nevil Shute’s “On the beach” will not become reality.
Looking ahead in this year 2025, neither optimism nor pessimism is appropriate. With an open mind and with knowledge, insight, and experience, we will continue to help prevent conflicts and, where possible, end them. The Mutual Gains Approach is certainly not a magic bullet, but what is wrong with increasing the chances of peace and happiness?
